Last year, at this time, NBA fans were watching one of the more unbelievable /disappointing /embarrassing displays of ego of all-time unfold right before our eyes. What resulted was the most universally hated team in decades, a surreal fall from grace for the league's superstar and eventually the Eastern Conference champions.
Some people loved the idea of a nationally announced decision (mostly Lebron supporters, who didn't realize what an ego-driven dick Lebron was) but most people hated it, seeing it as all that is wrong with the modern athlete. They thought it should be done the Kevin Durant way: silent and under-the-radar (a Tweet, actually), without any plans to boost your own ego by thrusting a knife into the back of an entire city on national television.
The fact of the matter is, everyone still watched. And all of that was way more interesting than the shit that's going on right now.
We're in the midst of a lockout, one that doesn't look like it will be ending any time soon. Even when the players and owners do manage to strike a deal, we're dealing with one of the absolute worst free agency classes of all-time, with the top draws being David West, Tyson Chandler, and Nene. Yikes.
Sure, I'll be interested. Where those players end up could certainly alter a title. Look at Chandler. The Mavericks don't win the championship without his defense at center. Nene and West, on the right teams, could definitely swing a playoff series or two.
But there won't be the buzz there was last summer. There was Stoudemire. Boozer. Johnson. Bosh. Wade. And, who was it again? Oh right. Lebron. Those are franchises. Not contributing starters or role players.
When the lockout ends, I'm sure I'll give my opinion on where this year's free agency class will wind up. It's hard to do now, particularly with so much riding on what changes will occur in the new CBA agreement (and good God are there going to be some changes). I could speculate, but I'm honestly not interested enough to speculate where potential 6th man Jason Richardson might end up.
Which is why I'm looking to 2012. To a free agent crop that, at least in the top three, rivals that of last summer's.
Dwight Howard, the league's most dominant center, who finally appears to be developing an offensive game, is the top prize in this class. You could argue that he's not on the level of Lebron James, but that doesn't change the fact that he is one of maybe five players that guarantee you a playoff birth as long as they aren't surrounded by four Brian Scalabrine's. I have no confidence that he's staying in Orlando. It's a dead situation, filled with bad contracts (Hello Agent Zero!) and worse role players.
So where does he go? Everyone loves the idea of him getting traded to L.A. If Orlando really feels like he isn't staying, they may just take care of it before free agency and try to trade him. L.A. has the chips with Gasol, Bynum and Odom. But the issue becomes whether or not Dwight Howard agrees to sign the extension. It's a serious gamble. Sure, you could argue that him and Kobe Bryant can win one or two rings together. Still once Kobe completely wears down (he already started this season), Dwight will be in exactly the same place he is currently in Orlando. I don't buy it. I also don't think Dwight wants to completely emulate Shaq's career, which a move to L.A. seemingly would. (Orlando to L.A., "Superman" nickname)
Deron Williams and Chris Paul are the other two top players in this class. Both are top five point guards, and are capable of leading a team well into the playoffs. CP3 wants out of New Orleans. It's the worst franchise financially in the NBA. Their second best player, David West, is on the way out in this year's free agency. It'd be hard to see CP3 staying, since the Hornets won't be able to draw in any other top free agents.
The Nets have a far greater chance of landing Deron Williams, and they better. The Russian gave away their future 5-10 years as a franchise in order to land Deron, so yeah, I'd say keeping him is a good idea. Brooklyn will be able to sign both him and another major free agent, and I doubt they'll be making a play for another point guard. For the Nets, it's Deron and Dwight, or nothing at all.
Personally, I'd love to see Deron and Dwight team up in Brooklyn, primarily because its another obstacle in the East that can prevent the Heat from ever winning a title. If they build properly around those two, that team would match up perfectly against the Heat, with superstars at positions where Miami is notoriously weak.
I'm not going to pretend I know where these players are going to be in 2013. But thinking about it is a lot more fun than acknowledging that we aren't going to have pro basketball next year.
Sound off in the comments where you think these three will end up.
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